Physically-based Hydrological Modelling for National Climate Change Risk Assessments

The Climate Change Committee produces a UK-wide Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) every five years in accordance with the Climate Change Act of 2008. The CCRAs assess the risks for the United Kingdom from the current and predicted impacts of climate change. The evidence from these reports feed into the development of the UK National Adaptation Programme, as well as the national adaptation programmes of the devolved administrations.

The latest national hydrological studies of future floods and droughts informing this round of CCRA (CCRA4), have primarily used the UKCP18 Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections to drive conceptual hydrological models. Hydrological modelling has a long legacy of development and as such there are a huge range of models to choose from for practical use. One of the key differences between hydrological models is the level of physical representation of catchment processes within the model code. Conceptual models represent processes in a simplified way that are parameterised and calibrated to observational data. Physically based (PB) models codify known physical laws into a single modelling framework. Each model structure has strengths and weaknesses, however, recent studies have demonstrated that physically-based models simulate more robust projections of future river flows under climate change.

In addition, there are opportunities to expand the range of climate model outputs used to drive the hydrological models. UKCP18 also provides higher resolution Convection Permitting Model (CPM) outputs that are better able to represent extreme rainfall events than the RCM data. A full exploration of future flows would also use climate model simulations from other centres such as EUROCORDEX.

This project would therefore aim to address several key research objectives:

– Calibrate and validate a national scale PB hydrological model at a high temporal resolution .

– Produce a set of high-resolution future flow projections using the UKCP18 CPM data.

– Assess the differences between conceptual and PB hydrological model output for future flows based on CPM projections.

– Evaluate whether the PB model captures the necessary physical processes for future weather extremes.

– Develop a national-scale ensemble of future flow projections using a broader set of climate data than UKCP18.

Eligibility

Applicants should have, or expect to achieve, an excellent academic record (UK First-class or 2.1 honours or international equivalent depending on the funding source) in Engineering, Earth Sciences, Computing or another related physical science discipline (MSc, MSci or BSc). You should have appropriate experience in hydrology, modelling or machine learning and an interest in developing your modelling skills. Some knowledge or previous experience in flood and drought management or computational modelling would be helpful, but is not an essential since you will receive training in all the relevant techniques. You will be encouraged to attend national and international conferences to share your research.

Funding

At Manchester we offer a range of scholarships, studentships and awards at university, faculty and department level, to support both UK and overseas postgraduate researchers applying for competition and self-funded projects.

For more information, visit our funding page or search our funding database for specific scholarships, studentships and awards you may be eligible for. Faculty funding scholarships have just been announced (President’s Doctoral Scholarship or Dean’s Doctoral scholarship). The application deadline for these awards is: Round 1 – 20th December, Round 2, 28th February (you just need to apply as normal and ask your supervisor to nominate you, please speak to the supervisor before you apply if possible).

Before you apply

We strongly recommend that you contact the supervisor(s) for this project before you apply. Please include details of your current level of study, academic background and any relevant experience and include a paragraph about your motivation to study this PhD project.

How to apply

Apply online through our website: https://uom.link/pgr-apply-2425

When applying, you’ll need to specify the full name of this project, the name of your supervisor, if you already having funding or if you wish to be considered for available funding through the university, details of your previous study, and names and contact details of two referees.

Your application will not be processed without all of the required documents submitted at the time of application, and we cannot accept responsibility for late or missed deadlines. Incomplete applications will not be considered.

After you have applied you will be asked to upload the following supporting documents:

• Final Transcript and certificates of all awarded university level qualifications
• Interim Transcript of any university level qualifications in progress
• CV
• Supporting statement: A one or two page statement outlining your motivation to pursue postgraduate research and why you want to undertake postgraduate research at Manchester, any relevant research or work experience, the key findings of your previous research experience, and techniques and skills you’ve developed. (This is mandatory for all applicants and the application will be put on hold without it).
• Contact details for two referees (please make sure that the contact email you provide is an official university/work email address as we may need to verify the reference)
• English Language certificate (if applicable)

If you have any questions about making an application, please contact our admissions team by emailing FSE.doctoralacademy.admissions@manchester.ac.uk.

Equality, diversity and inclusion is fundamental to the success of The University of Manchester, and is at the heart of all of our activities. We know that diversity strengthens our research community, leading to enhanced research creativity, productivity and quality, and societal and economic impact.

We actively encourage applicants from diverse career paths and backgrounds and from all sections of the community, regardless of age, disability, ethnicity, gender, gender expression, sexual orientation and transgender status.

We also support applications from those returning from a career break or other roles. We consider offering flexible study arrangements (including part-time: 50%, 60% or 80%, depending on the project/funder).