Polls Apart: Understanding and Reducing Vote Intention Polling Misses in Elections Around the World

Polling plays a crucial role in modern elections, shaping media narratives, public perceptions, and campaign strategies. However, recent election results, such as in the 2019 Australian Federal Election, the 2016, 2020 and 2024 US presidential elections, and the 2015 and 2024 UK general elections, reveal that polling misses, where actual election outcomes deviate significantly from polling predictions, have become a growing concern. These misses are often in the same direction: underestimating support for parties on the political right. The frequency and consistency of these misses suggest that there may be a systematic bias in how polling is done, as random errors would not show this pattern. 

This PhD offers an exciting opportunity to explore why polls sometimes get it wrong, investigating both country-specific factors and methodological challenges to uncover why polling misses happen, why the misses tend to be in the same direction —and what can be done to make polling more accurate.

Objectives

The objectives of the project are five-fold:

• Investigate the scale and nature of polling inaccuracies globally.
• Examine how country-specific factors (e.g., party system complexity, electoral rules) influence polling misses.
• Assess the impact of polling methodologies (e.g., survey design, weighting) on accuracy.
• Test experimental interventions (e.g., question format, survey timing) in real-time vote intention polling to help reduce the error between between polling estimates and election results.
• Develop actionable recommendations to minimise polling errors worldwide.

Data and Methods

The project requires a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and advanced quantitative methods. Specifically, the successful candidate will conduct: (1) elite interviews with polling professionals (e.g., Deltapoll, YouGov, Ipsos) to understand industry approaches and challenges; (2) retrospective analysis of past elections using comparative election datasets to establish what factors are predictive of polling misses in elections around the world; and (3) design survey experiments embedded into ‘live’ vote intention polling to understand how variations in survey methodologies may reduce polling errors.

Eligibility

Desirable criteria

• Quantitative methods training to the equivalent of at least one prior course at Master’s level, or advanced Undergraduate level. As an indication of required level, the candidate should have a strong understanding of hypothesis testing and multiple linear regression. Familiarity with statistical analysis software packages such as SPSS, Stata or R is also recommended.

Academic requirements

• Bachelor’s (Honours) degree in a cognate subject at 2:1 or above (or overseas equivalent); and
• Master’s degree in a relevant subject – with an overall average of 65% or above, a minimum mark of 65% in your dissertation and no mark below 55% (or overseas equivalent)

English language

All applicants must provide evidence of English language proficiency:

• IELTS test minimum score – 7.0 overall, 7.0 in writing, 6.5 in other sections.
• TOEFL (internet based) test minimum score – 100 overall, 25 all sections.
• Pearson Test of English (PTE) UKVI/SELT or PTE Academic minimum score – 76 overall, 76 in writing, 70 in other sections.
• To demonstrate that you have taken an undergraduate or postgraduate degree in a majority English speaking nation within the last 5 years.
• Other tests may be considered.

Application procedure

The application deadline will be Midnight (GMT) on 28/02/2025. Apply online for PhD Politics at the University of Manchester.

Under Section 6 Research Details select ‘Yes’ to Are you applying for an advertised project. Insert the project title as stated at the top of the advert. It is recommended when entering the name of the supervisor to simply enter this and not use the supervisor search function.

Please indicate in Section 9 Funding Sources your intention to apply for the ESRC CASE Studentship.

Please ensure all required supporting documents are included at the time of submission, as incomplete applications may not be considered. Your application must include the following:

• A copy of your Bachelor’s and Master’s academic transcripts and certificates. If your Master’s degree is pending, please provide an interim transcript.
• If you have completed more than one Bachelor’s or Master’s degree, please provide evidence for each. If your transcripts are in a language other than English, you must provide an official English translation. If your weighted average mark or GPA is not included on these documents, please also include an official document from your university verifying this information.
• An academic CV, summarising your employment history, publications and highlighting experience demonstrating your research potential.
• Supporting statement of a maximum of 700 words indicating why you would like to undertake this studentship and explaining how your focus, experience, and skills link to the research outlined above
• Example of a piece of academic writing produced by you of up to 5,000 words (you may consider submitting two shorter pieces if these deal separately with conceptual and empirical analyses). This may be an academic essay or chapter(s) from a dissertation, in which case, an abstract or introduction outlining the context/aims/research questions of the study must also be included. In Section 12, upload the Writing Sample under Research Statement/Proposal and label it clearly as “Writing Sample.”
• You must nominate two academic referees (including one from your most recent institution). Your referees will be contacted directly via the Referee Portal following the submission of your application form. You may wish to contact your referees to request they submit your reference in a reasonable timeframe as this forms part of the review process.
• Please submit a complete copy of the ESRC NWSSDTP Equal Opportunities Monitoring Form.
• A PhD Proposal is not required.

If you have any questions or would like to discuss this further, please contact Prof. Robert Ford (Rob.Ford@manchester.ac.uk).

Formal interviews: Interviews are expected to take place on 24th and 25th March 2025.

Equality, diversity and inclusion

Equality, diversity and inclusion are fundamental to the success of The University of Manchester, and are at the heart of all of our activities. We know that diversity strengthens our research community, leading to enhanced research creativity, productivity and quality, and societal and economic impact.

We actively encourage applicants from diverse career paths and backgrounds and from all sections of the community, regardless of age, disability, ethnicity, gender, gender expression, sexual orientation and transgender status.