The Intersection of Zoonotic Disease and Climate Change: A Study of Avian Influenza in a Wetland Ecosystem

Background:

Approximately 70% of emerging zoonotic diseases originate from wildlife (1). As the global temperature increases with climate change, the distributions and migration patterns of wild animals will also be altered, bringing them into closer contact with humans and domesticated animals (2, 3). Wetland ecosystems, which are severely threatened by climate change (4), host a wide diversity of wildlife species and are hotspots for disease transmission, particularly avian influenza.

Avian influenza represents a recognised danger to animal and human health, food security and the economy. Globally it has caused a panzootic of unprecedented scale leading to the mortality of hundreds of thousands of wild birds and other wildlife, including endangered species (5). Given the rapidly evolving and changing epidemiology of avian influenza, there is a need to better understand its risks to animal and human health within the context of climate change to help inform disease prevention mitigation efforts.

Aims and objectives:

The overarching goal of this project is to understand how climate change impacts the ecology and transmission of zoonotic diseases in a wetland ecosystem using avian influenza as an example, assessing the associated animal and human health risks, and developing strategies for surveillance and mitigation. Specific aims include:

• Assess the dynamics of avian influenza in wild birds and the environment (hypothesis: avian influenza will be more prevalent and persistent in the environment coinciding with bird migration and colder temperatures).

• Identify public perceptions and concerns surrounding zoonotic diseases.

• Predict future disease outbreaks and risks to animals and humans.

Methods:

We will use Chew Valley Lake (CVL) in Somerset, England, as a study site. CVL, the fifth-largest artificial lake in the UK, is owned by Bristol Water and provides critical services including drinking water for Bristol. It supports recreational activities like fishing, sailing, and public walks, and is designated as a Site of Special Scientific Interest and a Special Protection Area for wildlife. CVL hosts a rich diversity of resident and migratory bird species and has over 50 years of detailed bird count data. Furthermore, avian influenza has been reported in various bird species at CVL.

Project methods will include:

• Field surveillance and ecological observations to assess avian influenza dynamics: Sampling and data collection will occur at CVL longitudinally to quantify avian influenza and risk factors.

• Public involvement and engagement: We will conduct surveys and focus groups engaging with local public contributors to identify perceptions, concerns, and risks surrounding zoonotic diseases.

• Infectious disease modelling: Historical bird data, climate change and wildlife movement datasets will be used to predict future disease risks to animals and humans.

The student will acquire a range of skills: sample collection, laboratory work, disease modelling, risk analysis, survey design, and a diversity of data analysis methods.

Key references:

1. Jones KE, et al. (2008). Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature. doi: 10.1038/nature06536.
2. Abrahms B, et al. (2023). Climate change as a global amplifier of human–wildlife conflict. Nat. Clim. Chang. doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01608-5.
3. Prosser DJ, et al. (2023). Climate change impacts on bird migration and highly pathogenic avian influenza. Nat. Microb. doi.org/10.1038/s41564-023-01538-0.
4. Salimi S, et al. (2021). Impact of climate change on wetland ecosystems: A critical review of experimental wetlands. JEnviron. Manage. doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112160.
5. Klaassen M, Wille M. (2023). The plight and role of wild birds in the current bird flu panzootic. Nat. Ecol. Evol. doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02182-x.

Supervisors:

Dr Irene Bueno Padilla, Prof Ellen Brooks Pollock, Dr Nicola Rooney

How to apply:

Please visit the Bristol Veterinary School website Funded 4-year PhD Scholarship nearmejobs.eu Bristol Veterinary School nearmejobs.eu University of Bristol for details of how to apply and the information you must include in your application. If your application is shortlisted, you will be invited to interview on or before 17^th January. Interviews will take place on Microsoft Teams on 29^th January. Start date Sept 2025.

Candidate requirements: Standard University of Bristol eligibility rules apply. Please visit PhD Veterinary Sciences nearmejobs.eu Study at Bristol nearmejobs.eu University of Bristol for more information.

Contacts: please contact fohs-pgadmissions@bristol.ac.uk with any queries about your application.

Please contact the project supervisor for project-related queries irene.bueno@bristol.ac.uk