Unlocking the role of environmental cues in phenological change

Are you an ecologist with a strong quantitative background, an interest in responses to climate change, prediction, and modelling? Then this project might be for you!

This studentship will answer: how will future environmental change alter phenology and phenological synchrony? It will fill the gap of how to identify biologically realistic and predictively effective environmental cues of phenological change. 

The climate is changing rapidly, causing changes in biological populations. One of the most well studied examples of species responses to climate change is changing phenology, the timing of life history events such as breeding and migration. These event shifts can have negative impacts if energy requirements no longer match energy availability. Therefore, predicting how phenology will change is essential for forecasting how species will be impacted by climate change. To create these robust predictive models, we need to understand the mechanisms connecting environmental conditions and life history events. 

The exact causal cues of event timing have remained elusive. As a result, we frequently rely on proxy-cues to draw inference and make predictions. These proxies are not future proof. If the relationship between the proxy and the true cue diverges over time our models will become less useful. This is where your work will come in, to reduce our reliance on proxy cues, provide a mechanistic underpinning of phenological change, and improve our insight into future changes. In this project you will gain both field-based and statistical skills, combining complex statistical and mathematical modelling (including Bayesian modelling) with simulation studies, systematic review, and 2 years of fieldwork on the phenoweb project (including bird ringing). 

If successful in your application, you will complete a programme of doctoral research answering questions such as: 

– How good are our existing methods at identifying meaningful environmental cues? 

– What are the mechanisms linking phenological events and environmental change? 

– How do multiple cues for different aspects of spring breeding phenology (lay date, clutch size, incubation timing, hatch timing) combine to influence final synchrony between blue tits and their caterpillar prey? 

– How will spring phenology change in the next few decades for a blue tit – caterpillar – tree system?

Person specification

Essential criteria:

– UK Honours degree or equivalent in relevant subject (minimum 2:1 or supported by further study (Masters) or relevant experience).

– Experience of statistical or mathematical modelling in R.

– Interest in phenology and/or responses to climate change.

Desirable criteria:

– Ringing experience is desirable but can also be gained during the PhD.

– Experience of conducting (or willingness to conduct) physically demanding fieldwork under wide range of weather conditions.