Unveiling Tipping Points in lakes

Unveiling Tipping Points in lakes

Abstract

Freshwater lakes face unprecedented environmental pressures, jeopardizing their vital ecological services. This project investigates the existence, drivers, and socioeconomical consequences of tipping points (critical thresholds triggering rapid ecosystem shifts) in lakes worldwide. Utilising the unique capabilities of the ESA CCI Lakes dataset, we aim to identify key indicators and thresholds associated with tipping points, particularly focusing on changes in lake ice cover, water level and surface temperature. The research will enhance our understanding of lake sensitivity to stressors like climate and land-use change. We will assess potential cascading effects on ecological, hydrological, and socio-economic systems. This knowledge will inform proactive lake conservation strategies and promote long-term ecosystem sustainability.

Introduction

Lake ecosystems are vital components of the Earth’s biosphere, providing essential services such as freshwater supply, biodiversity support, and climate regulation. However, these ecosystems are increasingly vulnerable to environmental perturbations, including climate change. Understanding the dynamics of lake ecosystems, particularly regarding tipping points, is paramount for effective conservation and management strategies. Tipping points, defined as critical thresholds beyond which a system undergoes rapid and often irreversible change, have profound implications for the resilience and stability of lake ecosystems. This project will investigate tipping points in global lake ecosystems, addressing fundamental questions regarding their existence, drivers, and socioeconomic consequences. By elucidating the dynamics of tipping points in lake ecosystems, we aim to inform evidence-based decision-making and facilitate proactive measures for sustaining these invaluable ecosystems in the face of environmental change.

Methodology

The project will utilise long-term, high-resolution ESA CCI Lakes data to analyse trends and identify tipping points in lakes across diverse geographic regions. Statistical analyses will be employed to detect abrupt changes in lake ice phenology (shifts from permanently frozen to seasonally ice-free states), water level (e.g., drying up of lakes) and surface temperature (shift to a permanent heatwave state). We will explore potential correlations with other environmental variables (e.g., air temperature, precipitation) to elucidate drivers of tipping points. Additionally, we will consider the implications of these changes (i.e., ice cover) on transportation routes across inland waters.

Objectives

The primary objective of this research project is to elucidate the existence, dynamics, and implications of tipping points in global lake ecosystems utilizing, among others, the ESA CCI Lakes dataset. Specifically, we aim to:

• Identify key environmental variables and thresholds associated with tipping points in lake ecosystems.

• Assess the sensitivity of lake ecosystems to external stressors and internal feedback mechanisms.

• Investigate the potential cascading effects of tipping points on ecological, hydrological, and socio-economic systems.

Funding

This is a fully funded PhD Studentship with a stipend of: £19,237 per annum; Stipend provides financial support for full-time study.

This project would be suitable for for someone with a minimum of a UK Honours Degree at 2:1 level in hydrology, mathematics, meteorology, computer science, earth sciences, geography, or a closely related environmental or physical science. Students with a keen interest in freshwater science, data science and remote sensing are encouraged. Although not essential, it would be beneficial for you to have some experience of using a programming language such as Python, R, and/or MATLAB. It will also be an advantage to have good communication skills, a practical attitude, and to be pro-active and self-motivated.

To apply please visit our online application portal https://apps.bangor.ac.uk/apply/

Expressions of interest can be made to Dr Iestyn Woolway iestyn.woolway@bangor.ac.uk